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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.