Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
