Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
